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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Indian General Election 2009 - My Predictions

The 15th general elections will be finally over tomorrow.
Elections, campaigning and most importantly fooling around with the voters will be over by 13th May. The parties will get into some serious business. Yeah real serious, horse trading.

Here go my predictions on what can happen on 16th May.
1> BJP will emerge as the single largest party. But they will not be able to or rather allowed to form the government. Because they are not secular.
2> The so called (Pseudo) secular forces will join hands.
3> This election will bring few surprises. One of them is Mr. Lalu's RJD will be almost wiped out. Lalu may lose his Chapra seat. So Lalu becomes almost invisible force and shouldn't be taken seriously.
4> Another surprise in waiting is Left will be routed from West Bengal. (Hope they don't resort to rigging at least this time). I feel LEFT parties are the most confused parties in India. They themselves do not know what they want, which direction they want to go. And what they really want in life. (Other than stopping BJP from coming to power).
5> Left will forget all ideologies. (Doubt if they have any). They will extend the Olive branch to Congress. Sweet excuse will be to keep the communal forces out of power.
6> Mayawati will garner somewhere around 30 seats. Yes, Elephant will grow bigger this time.
7> Samajwadi Party will get somewhere around 25 seats. Rampur will be lost to Congress for sure.
8> Jayalalitha is the dark horse in this election. Once the results are out Jaya will be the most sought after political leader. She will have around 30 seats with her.
9> Mr. Sharad Pawar who can utter few words such as 'Marathi Manoos', 'PM', 'Pantpradhan', 'Prime Minister' will have to continue daydreaming for a real long long time.
10>TDP will gain inroads to Andhra, but will fall short of stopping the congress from coming to Power in Andhra.
I feel UPA will garner all the required support, but it will have to give it’s claim on the PM Gaddi.
It sounds completely weird that SP and Maya will share the platform.
Left and TMC will be part of the same government,
Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi part of the same government,
Left supporting the same congress, whose support was withdrawn merely 6 months ago.

But appears like this is what is called politics. Yaha kuch bhi ho sakata hai.

The UPA numbers will somewhat look like the one given below.

Congress - 160
SP - 25
RJD - 5
DMK - 10
AIDMK - 30
BJD - 7
NCP - 11
TDP - 18
BSP - 30
Left - 30
TMC - 6
UPA - 332
NDA - 211


Other Interesting predictions

1> Manmohan will have to vacate the 7th Race course residence. I strongly feel Jayalalitha will become the PM.
2> Mr. Advani will have to retire from active politics as promised. Sorry, sir. PM chair was never meant for you.
3> Azam Khan will be expelled from SP.
4> Lalu prasad will be reduced to rabbles, back to his cow yard, so that he can spend more time with cows/buffalos.
5> and more importantly the government will not complete its full 5 year term. They somehow managed last time, but no one will have that much patience.

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